经济动态效率视角下的省际最优消费率研究

Study on Inter Provincial Optimal Consumption Rate Under Perspective of Economic Dynamic Efficiency

经济实现黄金律增长时对应的消费率界定为最优消费率,从经济动态效率角度研究了我国省际最优消费率问题。通过对学者普遍采用的判断动态效率的AMSZ准则进行扩展,通过比较总消费和劳动收入来间接测算最优消费率。研究结果表明:东部地区为弱动态无效,中部地区为动态有效,西部地区动态效率最高;从现实消费率与最优消费率的关系看,中西部地区最终消费率高于最优消费率,而东部地区最终消费率低于最优消费率;我国省际最终消费率演变符合钱纳里的"U"型演变规律,中西部地区目前大多处于"U"型曲线的左半部分,东部地区处于拐点附近。我国东部、中部、西部地区最优消费率均值变动与经济发展水平负相关。

By defining the optimal consumption rate as when economy achieved the Golden Rule growth a corresponding rate of consumption, this paper studied China＇s provineial optimal consumption rate. This paper extended the AMSZ criteria that the scholars commonly used the judgment dynamic efficiency, and then by compared the total consumption and labor income to indirect calculation of optimal consumption rate. The results showed that the eastern regions of the weak dynamic inefficiency, the central area of the dynamic and effective, dynamic efficiency in the western region was the highest. From the reality eonsumption rate and the optimal consumption rate of the relationship, in the Central and Western regions, the final consumption rate was higher than the optimal consumption rate and the final consumption rate was lower than the optimal eonsumption rate in the eastern regions. Chinese provincial final consumption rate evolution accorded with Chenery＇s U type evolution, in the central and western regions at present was mostly U - shaped curve of the left half part, and eastern region in near the inflection point. China＇ s Eastern, Central and Western regions optimal consumption rate mean changed with the level of economic development and negative correlation.