美国退出《巴黎协定》的利益考量与政策冲击——基于扩展利益基础解释模型的分析

The Interest Consideration and Policy Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Analysis Based on Revisited Interest-Based Explanation Model

在全球变暖问题所引致的国际利益冲突中,美国因为其举足轻重的角色而受到举世瞩目。正因如此,特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》才会在美国国内以及国际社会引发巨大反响,并引起学术界的广泛热议,不同研究领域的学者分别从不同的角度对这个问题进行了分析。本文运用修正的利益基础解释模型,纳入了三个重要的分析因素,包括生态脆弱性、减污的经济成本以及国内政治因素,分析美国退出《巴黎协定》的背后考量,并重点分析了美国国内政治因素在其中所起到的作用。美国退出《巴黎协定》的影响可能主要体现在以下几个方面:导致《巴黎协定》的成效大打折扣;《巴黎协定》履约中的领导力赤字问题显著恶化;引发不良示范效应,重创国际气候合作信心;发展中国家面临的压力增加;导致全球减排这一紧迫问题遭受重大影响。在未来全球气候治理问题的博弈中,中国需要做到长远谋划、审慎决策。

In the international conflicts of interest caused by global warming, the United States has attracted worldwide attention for its pivotal role.For this reason, the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris agreement had caused great repercussions in the United States and the international community. Scholars have analyzed this issue from different research fields. This paper uses the revised explanatory model of interest basis to analyze the considerations behind the withdrawal of the Paris agreement, and focuses on the analysis of the role played by the domestic political factors in the United States. The impact of the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement may be mainly reflected in the following aspects: the effectiveness of the Paris agreement was greatly reduced; the leadership deficit problem has deteriorated significantly in the Paris agreement; Lead to bad demonstration effect and lose confidence in international climate cooperation; the pressure in developing countries increased. The urgent problem of global emission reduction has suffered a major impact; in the game of Global Climate Governance in the future, China needs to make long-term planning and make prudent decisions.