普惠金融对新疆经济持续增长影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Impact of Financial Inclusion on Xinjiang Sustained Economic Growth

为了探索普惠金融与经济持续增长的关系,利用新疆地区1978-2015年经济增长数据,运用GMM估计方法,考察普惠金融对经济持续增长的影响,并解释在新疆地区普惠金融对经济持续增长的贡献程度。同时利用政府干预作为控制变量,考察普惠金融对经济持续增长的影响。研究结果表明,在没有政府的干预下,普惠金融对经济持续增长有显著的正向影响,加入政府干预后,对经济持续增长的影响更加明显,促进作用更强。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,普惠金融的竞争性与经济持续增长存在双向的因果关系,而人口维度的金融维度可得性与经济持续增长存在单向因果关系。

In order to explore the financial inclusion relationship with the sustained economic growth,this paper used the economic growth data of Xinjiang from 1978 to 2015,used GMM estimation method,examined the impact of inclusive finance on sustained economic growth,and explained the financial inclusion contribution to the sustained economic growth in Xinjiang. At the same time,government intervention is used as the control variable to investigate the effect of inclusive finance on the sustained economic growth. Research results show that： in the absence of government intervention,inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the sustained growth of the economy; after joining the government intervention,the impact on the sustained economic growth is more obvious and the promotion effect is stronger. Granger causality test shows that the financial inclusion competitive and sustained economic growth have a two-way causal relationship,while the financial dimension population dimension availability and one-way causal relationship in the sustained economic growth.