对外直接投资对母国创新的影响及门槛分析

Study on the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China's Innovation and Threshold Analysis

选取我国30个省份的面板数据(基于2006—2015年),采用多元回归分析的方法分别检验全样本和分地区样本中对外直接投资、国内研发投入以及人力资本对创新能力的影响。研究结果表明,对外直接投资对全国创新能力有一定的正向影响,并且对两种不同类型的创新能力的影响存在显著差异,FDI对区域累积性创新存在显著的正向影响,而没有提升区域的根本性创新能力。此外,国内创新能力一定程度上受国内研发投入以及人力资本水平的影响。在此基础上,利用聚类分析将我国30个省市分为高创新能力地区、中创新能力地区以及低创新能力地区,通过分析得出3种不同创新程度地区差异产生的原因,将分析结果作为门槛回归模型的门槛变量,测算引发积极的创新效应的门槛水平。

This dissertation is an empirical study of national innovation ability,using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces（ except Tibet） from 2006 to 2015,and multivariate regression analysis methods were used to test the influence of FDI,RD and human capital on innovation ability for all samples and regional samples in domestic. The results showed that foreign direct investment has a positive influence on the innovation ability,and there was significant difference between the effects of two different types of innovation ability. FDI had a significant positive impact on the regional incremental innovation,while there is no progress in regional fundamental innovation capacity. In addition,domestic RD investment and human capital levels has a positive influence on innovation to a certain extent. On this basis,we will utlize cluster analysis to divide 30 China provinces into three areas： high innovation ability,middle innovation ability and low innovation ability.Then,we will analyse the difference among three regions with different degree of innovation generated by survey and literature reviewing. And the analysis results are used as the threshold variables to calculate the threshold level of the positive innovation effect.