气候变化背景下滨海城市应急疏散决策体系构建——以欧盟忒修斯项目为例

Emergency Evacuation Decision Support System for Coastal Cities in the Context of Climate Change—Implication from the FP7 Theseus Research Project

面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,非结构性防灾措施在城市综合防灾中日趋重要,滨海城市洪涝灾害的高风险性、低控制性以及可预期性,使得研究城市应急疏散具有重要意义。回顾了国外应急疏散决策的相关研究,总结了滨海城市应急疏散特点。介绍了忒修斯项目构建的SADT整体疏散决策体系,包括确定预报情景参数、地区人口及环境特征、行动级别及其他策略数据、疏散策略及优先选项、疏散场景及可行性、实施级别及策略优化、反馈及实施7项任务。阐述了决策流程及支持数据,具体说明了关键性策略的选择及主要难点的支持手段,并提出了优化策略。希望借鉴忒修斯项目经验,对我国滨海城市应急疏散决策体系构建产生有益启示。

Coastal cities are facing great challenge that floods are becoming more frequent and extreme due to the climate change. Because of the high severity,low controllability and predictability of floods,the implementation of non-structural measures such as early warning and emergency evacuation is required to protect the population. Built upon emergency evacuation decision mechanisms in foreign countries and characteristics of evacuation in coastal cities,we identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan in the FP7 Theseus research project（ 2009-2013）. The methodology relies on a conceptual framework-SADT-which helps to understand how data should be processed throughout the plan. We define seven tasks in the framework and specify the key strategies and solution approaches. The risk scenarios are suggested to be calculated for current and future conditions in order to help authorities optimize their strategy for risk mitigation,taking into account the effects of climate change. Authorities should also compare different strategies and test the effects of the action levels to improve the general process.