种植结构“趋粮化”的动因何在?——基于农地产权与要素配置的作用机理及实证研究

What Leads to a “Tendency to Plant Grains” in Agricultural Planting Structure? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Impact Factors of Land Property Rights and Factors Allocation

本文利用全国9省2704户农户的调查数据,分析了农地产权、要素配置对种植结构的影响。结果表明:(1)农地产权稳定性的改善会抑制农户种植农作物,但对种植经济作物的抑制作用显著强于对种植粮食作物的抑制作用,且不显著降低粮食种植户的粮食播种面积;(2)随着农地产权管制的放松,纯务农劳动力占比越高的农户,务农收益最大化的动机会激励他们越倾向于种植经济作物;(3)兼业农户与"离农"农户具有相同的行为目标,即务农成本最小化,强化地权稳定性将诱导这两类农户更倾向于种植粮食作物;(4)随着粮食生产中机械使用程度的提高,农地产权稳定性的改善能够提高粮食生产绩效。本文研究认为,农村劳动力的非农转移、地权稳定性的改善以及农业机械使用程度的提高,均会诱导农户更倾向于种植粮食作物,从而表现出种植结构的"趋粮化"。

This article employs survey data collected from 2704 households in 9 provinces to analyze the impact of land property rights and factors allocation on agricultural planting structure. The analytical results indicate, first of all, that the stabilization of land property rights can inhibit households to grow crops, and the inhibiting effect on cash crops plantation appears significantly stronger than that on grain plantation. The sown areas of grains are not found to become significantly smaller. Secondly, for households with a higher proportion of agricultural labor force, the combination of maximization of agricultural income and a decreasing control of land property rights tend to encourage them to grow more cash crops. Thirdly,for concurrent farming households and off-farm households, the stabilization of land property rights drives them to grow more grains to minimize farming cost. Fourthly, with an increase in the extent of machine usage in grain production, the stabilization of land property rights can encourage households to increase grain sown areas. The implications suggest that labor migration to off-farm work, the stabilization of land property rights and the increase in agricultural mechanization rate are likely to induce farmers to grow more grains. This leads to a tendency for them to plant grains in agricultural planting structure.