供水管网地震漏损蒙特卡洛模拟分析

Earthquake leakage analysis of the water supply pipeline network based on Monte Carlo simulation

为研究供水管网在不同地震烈度下的漏损情况和水力特性,基于管道地震破坏评估模型和概率分析方法,对不同地震烈度下管线的破坏概率和渗漏状态进行了计算分析,引入折减系数对管段抗震可靠度分析方法进行改进,并与传统计算方法比较,验证了其合理性。发展了Monte Carlo模拟技术在供水管网流分析方面的应用,并考虑带渗漏和爆管两种出流方式。编制程序对一大型管网进行了模拟分析,给出了震后带漏损情况下管网的漏失率和破坏情况,结果与实际地震灾害情况相符。

The damage probability and the leakage level of pipelines in different earthquake intensity were calculated according to earthquake damage evaluation model and probability theory for the reason of studying the leakage and hydraulic characteristics of water supply network in ground motion.The reduction coefficient was introduced to improve the seismic reliability analysis of the pipe section,by means of comparing with the traditional calculation method,the rationality was verified.Monte Carlo simulation technology application in the service of water supply network was developed,with considering leakage and burst of pipes as well as compiling the program,the earthquake leakage of a large-scale water supply pipeline network had been calculated.The result is consistent with those of the actual earthquake disasters and provides an effective means for evaluating the failure state of the seismic function of the water supply pipeline network.