网络空间的攻防平衡与网络威慑的构建

Offense-Defense Balance in Cyberspace and a Proposed Model of Cyber Deterrence

网络空间已经成为大国战略博弈的新领域。网络空间的军事化是一个难以逆转的客观趋势。目前关于网络攻防、网络威慑及其对大国战略稳定影响的讨论存在不足。一部分观点认为,归因、划线、对称报复等技术困境的存在使得网络威慑难以成立。而网络攻防失衡、进攻更占优势的结果将打破战略稳定,并导致频繁的网络战争,甚至引发冲突升级。然而,这种怀疑论和悲观论实际上模糊了不同程度的网络安全事件之间的界限,又未能全面理解网络攻防之间存在的巧妙平衡。通过对特定网络攻防技术进行区分,再结合对于重大网络安全事件的经验分析,不难发现大规模网络攻击的后果存在诸多不确定性因素,而归因问题也并非无法化解。由此一来,"向谁报复""在何种情况下报复"以及"如何报复"这三大困扰网络威慑的问题也基本上迎刃而解。以现实主义的基本理念,务实对待和理解网络空间的攻防均衡,通过构建积极的网络威慑实现网络空间的战略稳定,在当下已经具备一定的可行性,也应该成为大国在网络空间战略互动的一个主要方向。

Cyberspace has become a new area of strategic game between great powers.The militarization of cyberspace is an objective trend that is difficult to reverse. At present,there is not enough discussion on cyber offense and defense,cyber deterrence and its impact on the strategic stability between major powers. Some experts argue that attribution,line-drawing, symmetrical retaliation and other technical difficulties make cyber deterrence hard to achieve. Furthermore,the perception of cyber offense dominance will break the strategic stability,cause frequent cyberwars,and even lead to the escalation of conflicts. However,such kind of skepticism and pessimism actually blurs the line between different levels of cybersecurity incidents and fails to understand the subtle balance between offense and defense in cyberspace. By differentiating specific cyber offense and defense techniques and combining with empirical analysis of major cybersecurity incidents,it is not difficult to find out that large-scale cyberattacks face many uncertainties and the attribution problem is not unavoidable. As a result, the three questions-the object,the threshold,and the measure of retaliation on cyber deterrence can basically be solved. With the realism concept and pragmatic understanding of offense-defense balance in cyberspace,it is feasible to achieve strategic stability in cyberspace through building active cyber deterrence. It should also become a major direction for the strategic interaction between great powers in cyberspace.