基于PSR概念模型的我国木材安全评价

Evaluation of timber security in China based on PSR conceptual model

为了解和掌握我国木材安全状况,利用PSR概念模型和熵值法,对1997—2015年我国木材安全水平进行评价并分析变化趋势。结果表明:1)研究期内我国木材安全方面的压力呈波浪式上升趋势,其主要影响因素是木材国际贸易;2)研究期内我国木材安全方面的状态呈先下降后上升的趋势,其主要影响因素为国内木材供给和森林资源状况;3)木材产业技术进步指数与废纸回收率共同改善了我国木材安全状态,使研究期内我国木材安全方面的响应几乎呈直线上升趋势;4)1997—2015年我国木材安全水平综合评估值与状态评估值变化趋势基本一致,表明状态类指标是影响我国木材安全的主要因素。影响我国木材安全的压力在不断增大,而木材安全方面的状态和产业技术响应也在不断提升,并且超过了压力上升的幅度,这导致我国的木材安全水平正在逐渐上升。

To understand and master the situation of timber security,the timber security of China during 1997-2015 was evaluated and analyzed by using PSR conceptual model and Entropy method in this study.The results showed that：1） The pressure of timber security in China during 1997-2015 was increasing in wave with international timber trade as the main factor;2） The state of timber security in China presented an downward-then-upward tendency during 1997-2015.The main influencing factors were domestic timber supply and forest resources condition;3） The responses to ensure timber security of China indicated a steep rising trend due to the improvement of the security of timber in China by both the timber industry technical progress index and the waste paper recovery rate;4） The changing trend of the comprehensive evaluation of timber security in China approximately agreed with that of state evaluation indicating that state indicators were key factors affecting timber security in China.In conclusion,the pressures influencing the timber security of China are on rising.However,the state of timber security and the responses on high-tech industry are improved at a higher range than that of the pressures,which would lead to the increase of China＇s timber security.