影响洛川县苹果产投效益的关联因素分析

Contingency analysis on farmers' input and output of apple orchards in Luochuan County

为了解在黄土高原乃至我国苹果产业中占重要地位的洛川县地区的苹果园成本投入现状、分析计算合理施肥范围及各成本的投入与效益的关系,为实现果园的节肥减药和提高苹果品质提供指导依据,基于问卷调查,利用数据标准化和灰色关联分析法,对施肥量与产量、成本与利润、产量与利润的关系进行分析。结果表明:1)苹果产量随氮肥、磷肥、钾肥投入的增加,先增加后降低;2)当成本投入增加到3万元/hm2时,产量和利润均达到峰值;3)肥料费用、农药费用、用工费、纸袋费与利润的关联度均达到80%以上,每一项成本投入对苹果效益都有密切联系,其中肥料和农药费用最高,关系最密切。洛川县苹果园氮、磷、钾肥施用过量和不足现象并存。因此,应在充分了解果园土壤养分状况的基础上,结合果树的需肥规律,对该区域的苹果树合理施用氮、磷、钾肥,提高肥料利用率,达到节肥增效的目的。

Luochuan County is an important area for apple production in China.It is important to understand the current situation of apple orchard in Luochuan County,calculate the reasonable fertilization range and analysis the relationship between the input and benefit on farmers＇ profit in this area.A household survey from 154 farmers was conducted to investigate the relationships among fertilization,yield,cost and profit in apple orchards,and the data was analyzed by the combined method of data normalization and gray correlation analysis.The results indicated that the increase of fertilizer could improve apple yield within a certain range.The farmers could gain the highest yield and profit when the input of apple orchard increased to 30 000 RMB/hm^2.All the input of fertilization,pest and disease prevention,labor and bagging were closely linked to the farmers＇ profit,and the cost of fertilization and disease prevention had the greatest proportion of input.And excessive and deficient application of N,P and K fertilizers existed simultaneously.Therefore,suggestions onstrengthening the reasonable application of fertilizer in apple production in future was put forwarded.