摘要
目的分析乌鲁木齐市暗娼人群HIV感染危险因素,预测流行趋势,为防治工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用乌鲁木齐市2009-2016年暗娼人群艾滋病感染率数据,采用logistic回归分析暗娼人群感染HIV的危险因素和最近一个月每次与客人发生性行为都使用安全套的影响因素,应用ARIMA模型,预测乌鲁木齐市暗娼人群2017-2019年HIV感染率。结果暗娼人群HIV感染率为0.47%;多因素logistic回归分析结果显示:高的文化程度、艾滋病知识知晓与"最近一个月每次与客人发生性行为都使用安全套"呈正相关;离异或丧偶(χ~2=3.00,95%CI:1.26~7.15),维吾尔族(χ~2=36.02,95%CI:14.01~92.63),吸毒(χ~2=9.33,95%CI:1.95~44.74)是感染HIV的危险因素。ARIMA模型(1,0,0)预测的2017-2019年HIV感染率为分别为0.35%、0.39%、0.41%。结论运用ARIMA(1,0,0)模型模拟和预测暗娼人群HIV感染率在时间序列上的变化趋势较为方便适用,乌鲁木齐市应针对暗娼人群开展持续有效的行为干预。
Objective To understand the demographic characteristics,predict the HIV prevalence trend of Female sex worker（FSW） in Urumqi,so as to provide scientific references for prevention and control. Methods Demographic characteristics： sex behavior histories and serological detection results were collected through Urumqi AIDS sentinel surveillance system during 2009-2016. Using multivariate logistic regression analyze the influencing factors of HIV infection and FSW have been using condoms every time they have sex with their clients for the last 1 month. The predictive model of HIV/AIDS was established by the ARIMA model. Results The HIV infection rate of female sex worker was 0. 47%. Multivariate logistic regrssion analysis showed that high level of education： knowledge of AIDS and＂FSW have been using condoms every time they have sex with their clients for the last1 month＂was positively correlated： divorced or widowed（χ~2= 3. 00,95% CI： 1. 26 ~ 7. 15） ： Uygur（χ~2= 36. 02,95% CI： 14. 01~ 92. 63） and use drug（χ~2= 9. 33,95% CI： 1. 95 ~ 44. 74） were risk factors of HIV. The ARIMA（1,0,0） model of HIV/AIDS was as follow： the predictive results of HIV prevalence in Urumqi from 2017 to 2019 were 0. 35%,0. 39%,0. 41%,respectively. Conclusion Using ARIMA（1,0,0） model to simulate and predict the trend of HIV infection rate is more convenient to apply： we should carry out continuous and effective behavior intervention for the FSW in Urumqi.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2018年第3期246-249,252,共5页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
基金
乌鲁木齐市科学技术局(Y161310024)
