基于系统动力学模型的矿业绿色循环发展路径探究

Research on the development path of mining green and circular based on system dynamic model

矿业绿色循环发展影响因素多,发展态势难以直观把握,各主要影响因素之间的协调性成为其实现的关键。将矿业绿色循环发展视为一个复杂大系统,包括资源、经济、人口、环境、科技等五个子系统,结合绿色发展的理念与循环经济的"3R"原则,借助善于解决非线性复杂大系统问题的系统动力学理论,以略阳县为例,构建了县域矿业绿色循环发展系统动力学模型,探究县域实现矿业绿色循环发展最优路径。通过仿真计算,遴选出当前发展路径Ⅰ、经济发展路径Ⅱ和绿色循环协调路径Ⅲ三种典型路径,并对该三种典型路径的模拟结果进行对比分析,结果认为绿色循环协调路径Ⅲ是实现略阳矿业绿色循环发展的最优路径。最后基于该路径提出相关建议,以期为矿业发展提供政策参考。

It＇s difficult to grasp the development trend of the green and circular development of the mining industry with many influence factors.And the coordination between the major factors become the key to its realization.Mining green and circular development is regarded as a complex large system,including five subsystems,such as resources,economy,population,environment,science and technology.Combining the concept of green development with the＂3R＂principle of circular economy,with the help of system dynamics theory,which is good at solving the problem of nonlinear complex large system.Based on the fact of Lueyang county,the authors builded a system dynamics model of mining green and circular development,to explore optimal path for achieving county＇s mining green and circular development.At last,through simulation,three typical paths are selected：natural development path Ⅰ,economic development path Ⅱ,green and circular coordination path Ⅲ,and then the simulated results of three typical path were analyzed.The results show that green and circular coordination path Ⅲ is the best path to achieve mining green and circulardevelopment.In the end,some suggestions based on the path are proposed,and hoping that could be helpful for the local mining development.