煤矿城市土地生态安全评价与预测:以山西省朔州市为例

Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security in coal mine city:a case study of Shuozhou city,Shanxi province

煤矿城市面临着煤炭资源开发过程中带来的生态环境恶化问题。本文以山西省朔州市为例,选取2005~2015年统计数据,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架选用多因素综合指数法进行生态安全评价,选用灰色关联度来反映煤炭开采与其他因素之间的关联性,选用GM(1,1)模型预测2016~2020年生态安全指数,引入障碍度模型分析影响生态安全指数的显著因子。结果表明:朔州市2005~2015年生态安全指数呈下降趋势,生态安全等级由较安全下降为临界安全。2016~2020年生态安全指数将短暂小幅上升后迅速下降,生态安全等级由临界安全下降为不安全。煤炭资源开采对研究区其他生态安全评价指标影响显著。主要障碍因子由固体废弃物综合利用水平和经济因素转变为煤炭开采量、固体废弃物、工业废水、生态环境资金投入和土地复垦率。通过分析反映和预测朔州市生态环境状况,为制定资源开发、环境保护和土地复垦措施,构建生态安全保障体系提供有益参考。

Coal mine cities are faced a series of ecological environment problem.This paper takes Multifactor comprehensive index method based on Pressure-State-Response（PSR）framework to evaluate the ecological security and grey correlation degree to reflect the correlation between coal mining and other factors and Grey Model（1,1）to predict the ecological security from 2016 to 2020 and Barrier Model to analysis the index significant factors of ecological security.The results show：the ecological security index of Shuozhou city in the past 2005～2015 years showed a downward trend,and the ecological security level decreased from Safety decline to Critical Safety level.The prediction that ecological security index from 2016 to 2020 will decline rapidly after a brief increase in 2017,and the ecological security level will be reduced from the critical safety to unsafety.Coal mining has significant influence on other ecological safety evaluation indexes.The main obstacle factors of ecological security in the early year such as solid waste comprehensive utilization level and economic level which are changed to the amount of coal mining,industrial solid wasteand waste water,environmental protection investment and land reclamation rate.Through analyzing of the ecological environment in Shuozhou city can provide a useful reference for the establishment of relevant measures for the development of coal resources,environmental protection and land reclamation measures,and for the construction of ecological safety guarantee system.