居住压力与居留意愿——基于北京外地户籍大学毕业生的调研分析

Housing Pressure and Residence Willingness:an Empirical Analysis on College Graduates Without Registered Residence in Beijjing

从推拉理论出发,使用二元LOGISTIC回归分析方法,以个体因素、家庭因素、社会因素、制度因素为控制变量,分析了居住压力对在京外地户籍大学毕业生居留意愿的影响。结果表明,高房价下,居住状况已成为大学毕业生居留选择的最重要影响因素。居住面积和住房来源对大学毕业生的居留意愿影响显著,居住面积更小者未来离开北京的意愿更强,以市场化方式获得住房者(自己单独租房、合租房)比住集体宿舍者更可能离开。此外,个人的人力资本(教育程度)和社会资本(是否在京高校毕业)对他们的居留意愿有显著影响,而工作单位类型、职业、收入、家庭的经济社会地位、家乡所在地、社会保险制度等对居留选择都没有显著影响,这和农民工的迁移意愿有明显不同。

This study, based on the Push-Pull Theory, choosing individual factors, family factors, social factors and institutional factors as controlling variables, constructs three By-logistic Regression Models to ex- plore the impact of housing pressure on the residence willingness of college graduates without registered resi- dence in Beijing. The results show that living conditions are the most essential factors in graduates＇ choice to stay in the context of high housing prices. The living area and the source of housing are very significant to their decision-making of leaving or staying. Additionally, their human capitals and social capitals are also significant. However, the unit type, occupation, income, families＇ social and economic status, hometown and social security system have no influence on their residence willingness, which is different from the migrant workers.