煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的未确知测度模型

Unascertained Measure Model of Coal and Gas Outburst Risk Assessment

煤与瓦斯突出的影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰性、未知性等不确定性,传统的评价方法难以兼顾评价指标的确定和未确知性,导致煤矿煤与瓦斯突出评价结果失真。针对此问题,构建了比较全面的煤与瓦斯突出评价体系,引入新的评价方法,基于未确知理论,综合煤与瓦斯突出评价指标的未确知因素,通过层次分析法确定影响因子的权重;由影响因子的未确知测度向量建立向量模型;用置信度描述评价结果,得出煤与瓦斯突出等级。运用构建的新评价模型对新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出进行评价,评价结果为"较安全"等级,符合工程实际。工程实例表明:基于未确知测度理论的煤与瓦斯突出评价准确、可靠,精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。

The influence factors of coal and gas outburst are random, fuzzy, grey and unknown, the traditional evaluation method is difficult to balance the determination and uncertainty of evaluation indexes, which leads to the distortion of coal and gas outburst evaluation. To solve this problem, a comprehensive evaluation system for coal and gas outburst is established, and a new evaluation method based on unascertained theory is introduced; based on the comprehensive evaluation index of coal and gas outburst unascertained factors, the influence factor weight by AHP is determined; vector model is established by the impact factor of the unascertained measure vector;using confidence to describe the evaluation results, the level of coal and gas outburst is obtained.Evaluation of coal and gas outburst in Xinxing Coal Mine is carried out by using new evaluation model. The evaluation result is＂safer＂grade, which conforms to the engineering practice. The engineering example shows that the coal and gas outburst evaluation based on unascertained measure theory is accurate, reliable, high precision, and has high application value.