交易主体行为视角下资产价格泡沫生成演化机制研究

Research on the Evolution Path of Asset Price Bubble under the Perspective of Trading Subject Behavior

本文以达尔文的遗传机制和行为主体的双系统决策理论为基础,建立交易主体行为模型,对交易惯例和交易流行模式演化原理进行分析;然后以"交易主体行为"为线索,从基础因素、流行模式、交易惯例与交易行为交互作用的视角,构建资产价格泡沫的生成演化传导路径:三个上涨阶段与三个下跌阶段;最后,本文对每个阶段交易主体行为的生理因素、心理因素与情境因素的特点进行剖析,从而为资产价格泡沫生成的动态机制提供一种新视角,为当前我国防范和控制资产价格泡沫提供重要的理论依据。

When China's economic development is undergoing a transformation, prevention and control of the "asset price bubble" is the key to its success. Based on Darwin's genetic mechanism and the dualsystem decision-making theory of behavioral agents, this article establishes the transaction principal behavior model and analyzes the trading theory and the evolution principle of the transactional epidemic model. Then,taking the "transaction subject behavior" as the clue, from the basic factors, including the three rising stages and the three falling stages, analyzes the physiological factors, psychological factors and situational factors of the subject behavior of the transaction in each stage, from the perspective of interaction between popular patterns, trading patterns and trading behaviors. It provides an entirely new idea for the dynamic mechanism of asset price bubble, and also provides an important theoretical basis for how to prevent and control asset price bubble in China.