论日本第48届众议院选举及安倍政权走向

On the Election of Japan's 48th House of Representatives and the Trend of the Abe Cabinet

第48届众议院选举的提前举行,是日本首相安倍晋三基于内阁支持率回升、自民党处于领先优势、民进党势力低迷及新兴政治势力立足未稳等因素而作出的政治决定,其导致民进党分裂以及希望之党与立宪民主党的仓促组建。在竞选过程中,围绕消费税提升、核电、修宪等政策课题,执政两党(自民党和公明党)、希望之党与日本维新会、立宪民主党与日本共产党及社民党"三股势力"之间展开角逐。执政联盟获胜的原因是多方面的,不仅由于在野党势力的孱弱与分裂,也是日本选民"别无选择"的无奈之举。大选后组建的安倍内阁呈长期执政态势,其延续"安倍经济学"、强化对朝施压、推进修宪路线等政策取向值得关注。

The election of the 48 th House of Representatives of Japan was held ahead of time, which was a political decision made by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe based on such calculations that cabinet support was picking up, the Liberal Democratic Party was at the leading edge, the Democratic Progressive Party was on the downturn, and the emerging political forces had not been surefooted yet, resulting in the division of the Democratic Progressive Party and the hasty establishment of the Party of Hope and the Constitutional Democratic Party. During the election campaign, three forces, namely the two ruling parties(the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party), the Party of Hope and the Japan Restoration Party, and the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party, were locked in fierce contest over such policy issues as the rising of consumption tax, nuclear power, and constitutional revision. Although the victory of the ruling coalition might be attributed to many factors, the weakness and division of the opposition parties could be taken as the major cause, so that the voters could do nothing but voted for the ruling coalition parties. As the Abe cabinet established after the election takes on a long-term ruling situation, its policy tendency to continue with the Abenomics, intensify the pressure on North Korea, and promote constitutional revision are worthy of our close attention.