广西河池地区少数民族老龄化与长寿水平分析

Analyzing The Status Of Aging And Longevity Of Minority In Hechi District Of Guangxi

目的:了解广西河池市少数民族人口老龄化及长寿情况,为制定人口政策和卫生规划、合理分配卫生资源提供依据。方法:采用Excel2016计算老龄化指标、人口负担指标和长寿指标,绘制人口金字塔;运用Origin Pro8绘制长寿变化趋势图,R3.3.0进行长寿影响因素的单因素回归模型拟合。结果:2000~2010年,河池市从成年型社会过渡到老年型社会。老龄化程度:壮族>汉族>毛南族>仫佬族>瑶族>苗族>其他;人口抚养比:瑶族>毛南族>苗族>壮族>仫佬族>其他>汉族。百岁老人比率瑶族最高(2010年:21.56/10万),且历次普查保持稳定,壮族和汉族则逐步增长。2000~2010年,瑶族、壮族和汉族的长寿指数均有所增加,其中瑶族最高,其次是壮族和汉族。单因素回归分析结果显示:文化水平低、工作率高和死亡率低的人群表现出较高的长寿水平,P值均小于0.05。结论:河池市已进入老龄化状态,各民族老龄化程度不均衡。瑶族是该地区稳定的长寿民族。需要当地自治区政府有针对性地制定人口政策,均衡分配卫生资源,健全养老体系,提高卫生服务水平。

Objective To explore the status of aging and longevity of minority in Hechi District of Guangxi, and provide basis for policy - making and rational allocation of health resources. Methods Indicators of aging, population burden and longevity were calculated by software of Excel 2016 to formulate population pyramid. The longevity trend was mapped with software of OriginPro8. And univariate regression model was developed by software of R3.3.0. Results Population in Hechi has transited from adult socie- ty into elderly society during the past ten years （2000 -2010）. The degree of aging in different minorities ranked as： Zhuang 〉 Han 〉 Maonan 〉 Mulao 〉 Yao 〉 Miao 〉 Others. Population support ratio in different minorities ranked as： Yao 〉 Maonan 〉 Miao 〉 Zhuang 〉 Mulao 〉 Others 〉 Han. The highest number of centenarians per one hundred thousand inhabitants was in Yao, which remained stable during the last four surveys, while it was gradually increased in Zhuang and Han. The longevity index of Yao was in the highest, followed by Zhuang and Han, all of which had increased from 2000 to 2010. Univariate regression analysis showed that population with lower education, high employment rate and lower mortality rate had higher level of longevity. Conclu- sion Population in Hechi City has entered the aging stage, with imbalanced degree of aging among different minorities. Yao is a stably longevity minority in this region. It is suggested for the local government to formulate a targeted population policy, balance allocation of health resources, perfect the pension system and improve the health services.