转移支付改革对基本公共服务均等化的影响

The Impact of Transfer Payment Reform on the Equalization of Basic Public Services

本文基于CGSS2013中居民样本嵌套于76个城市的截面数据，采用Ordered Probit模型，实证探讨了转移支付规模和结构对基本公共服务均等化的影响及其边界条件。结果显示：转移支付规模的扩大在概率上显著增加了基本公共服务均等化；不同转移支付形式对基本公共服务均等化的影响有显著差异：税收返还和专项转移支付对基本公共服务均等化的无效性，一般性转移支付在概率上显著增加了基本公共服务均等化；晋升压力是影响“转移支付规模、结构——基本公共服务均等化”间的重要边界条件。因此，我国在转移支付制度的改革中，应充分考虑当地的晋升压力，只有实现转移支付制度改革与晋升压力的协同配合，才能最大限度提升基本公共服务均等化。

Based on the cross-section data of residents in 76 samples cities in CGSS2013, using the Ordered Probit model, this paper empirically studies the effect of transfer payment scale and structure on the equalization of basic public services and its boundary conditions. The results show that the expansion of the transfer payment scale significantly increases the equalization of basic public services in probability. The impacts of different transfer payment forms on the equalization of basic public services are significantly different： tax return and special transfer payment are ineffective in the equalization of basic public services, the general transfer payments significantly increase the equalization of basic public services in probability. The promotion pressure is an important boundary condition that affects ＂the scale of transfer payments, the structure--equalization of basic public services＂. Therefore, in the reform of transfer payment system in China, we should take full account of local promotion pressure. Only if we achieve the coordination between transfer payment system and promotion pressure, can we maximize the equalization of basic public services.