新疆车尔臣河流域近63年气温、降水与湿润指数变化研究

Variation Analysis on Temperature,Precipitation and Humidity Index in Qarqan River Basin in Past 63 Years

开展气候变化研究对于流域水资源规划利用和生态环境保护具有重要意义。文章采用M-K检验、R/S法、小波分析及线性回归等方法,分析了新疆车尔臣河流域1952—2014年气温、降水及湿润指数的变化特征。结果表明:近63 a来,研究区上下游气温、降水及湿润指数均呈显著增加趋势,气候向暖湿化发展趋势明显;上下游气候突变年份分别为1987、1990,1964、1980,1964与1980年;上述变量的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明未来一段时间内仍将持续增加;上下游各气候因素分别存在15~22 a与8~21 a不等的主周期。

Research on climate change is of great significance for water resources planning, utilization and ecological environment protection in river basin. In this paper, Mann-Kendall test, R/S method, Wavelet analysis and linear regression methods are applied to analyze the index variation characteristics of temperature, precipitation and humidity in Qarqan river basin from 1952 to 2014. The results show that in past 63 years, indexes of temperature, precipitation and humidity obviously increase in trend, climate to warm and humid. The corresponding years in which climate changes promptly by upstream and downstream are 1987,1990,1964,1980,1964 and 1980 respectively. The said variable Hurst index all are greater than 0.5, which indicates that they will continue to inerease in the future. The climate factors at both upstream and downstream are with main periods of 15 - 22 a and 8 - 21 a.