第17届世界游泳锦标赛泳坛竞争格局特征分析

Analysis of Competitive Pattern of Swimming Competition in the 17th World Swimming Championships

采用文献资料、数理统计、逻辑分析等方法对第17届世界游泳锦标赛游泳成绩进行分析,并与里约奥运会、第16届世界游泳锦标赛成绩进行比较.结果显示:第17届世界游泳锦标赛竞技成绩整体特征呈现"下滑递增"态势,男子项目成绩提升更为显著;世界泳坛格局竞技实力不均衡性特点显著,各洲际金牌覆盖率严重失衡.第一集团成员由过去"美、澳、英"转变为"美、中、俄",澳大利亚和英国整体成绩出现滑坡退居第2集团,重构第2梯队的新格局;与第16届世锦赛相比中国游泳队整体成绩同比增长率为-8.4%,略有下滑,但游泳项目百花齐放,巾帼新秀各展风采,男子运动员继续突破,女子凭借雄厚的竞技实力底蕴、充足的后备力量以及年龄优势未来可期,整体实力完胜劲敌日本.

Using methods of literature, mathematical statistics, logic analysis of the 17th world swimming championships swimming performance is analyzed, and compared with the Rio Olympics, the 16th world championships performance comparison. The results showed that the overall charac- teristics of the competition performance of the 17th world swimming championships were ＂declining and increasing＂, and the improvement of the men＇s project performance was more significant. The competitive power of swimming in the world is unbalanced, and the coverage of the continental gold MEDALS is seriously unbalanced. The first group members were transformed from the past ＂beauty, Australia and Britain＂ into ＂the United States, China and Russia＂, and the overall achievements of Australia and Britain came back to the second group, and the new pattern of the second echelon was reconstructed. Compared with the 16th world championships the Chinese swimming team overall per- formance year-on-year growth rate of 8.4% , down slightly, but swimming flowers, women＇s rookie to fly, male athletes continue to break through, woman with strong competitive strength background, it should be a sufficient reserve force as well as the age advantage in the future, the overall strength of those of rival Japan.