中国利率变动的非对称效应研究

Research on Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Changes in China

文章基于中国现实,构建了包含二元信贷供给结构的动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）,并运用脉冲响应分析从利率变动对总产出和通胀的非对称效应以及利率变动对不同类型企业的非对称效应两个角度全面分析了中国利率变动的非对称效应的问题。结果发现：提高利率对于通胀的抑制效果并不明显,反而会抑制总产出,而降低利率只在短期内对总产出有一定的刺激作用,中长期的作用效果则并不明显,且会刺激通胀。利率变动对不同类型企业的影响具有非对称性。相比于国有企业,紧缩性利率政策对非国有企业带来的负向效应较为显著。

Based on the reality of China, this paper constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium（DSGE） model which includes dual structure of credit supply. From two perspectives of the asymmetric effect of interest rate changes on output and inflation and the asymmetric effects of interest rate changes on different kinds of enterprise, the paper uses impulse response to analyze the asymmetric effects of interest rate changes in China. The results show that the inhibiting effect of inflation is not significant when interest rate is raised, but it significantly reduces the output. Reducing interest rate, which has a certain stimulative effect on the output in the short term, has a little effect on the output in the longer run; variation of interest rate produces asymmetric effects on different kinds of enterprises;compared with the state-owned enterprises, the negative effect of tightening interest rate policy on the non-state-owned enterprises is more significant.