汇率冲击与企业生产率——基于市场竞争传导机制的分析

Exchange Rate Shock and Productivity at Firm Level:Analysis from the Perspective of Market Competition Mechanism

汇率对贸易依存度较高的中国经济有着深远影响。在经济增长模式转型的背景下,本文基于2005年人民币汇率制度改革这一事件,利用匹配的中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库,采取倾向性得分匹配和双重差分的方法来识别汇率变动对企业生产率的因果影响,并通过构建企业层面的汇率暴露指标来识别汇率变动影响企业的竞争环境渠道,尝试从微观层面揭示汇率在我国经济结构转型中的重要作用。研究结果表明,企业在面临竞争加剧时会通过提高生产率的方式来加以应对,2005年后人民币实际升值通过竞争环境渠道使企业全要素生产率提高1.1%、企业劳动生产率提高1.2%。这表明,汇率能够通过影响竞争环境而发挥促进产业升级和结构调整的作用。

As an important price in an open macro economy,exchange rate will exert great influence on Chinese economy which has high trade dependence. Based on the Chinese exchange rate regime reform in2005,this paper uses the propensity score matching method as well as difference in differences method to investigate the causal effect of exchange rate movement on productivity by combining the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database（ CIED） and Customs Data. It also constructs an exchange rate exposure index to identify the mechanism of change in competition environment. The research results show that real appreciation of RMB enhances the total factor productivity by 1. 1% and labor productivity by 1. 2%. In sum,the exchange rate is important for the industrial upgrading and restructuring in China, and thus could make contribution for efficiency improvement of Chinese economy.