我国非正规经济投入产出表编制与应用分析

Input-output Table of Informal Economy and its Application in China

随着非正规经济规模的扩张,非正规经济与正规经济之间的关联逐渐增强。本文结合我国非正规经济特征对国家投入产出表做进一步开发,编制出1992年、1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年5个年份的非正规经济投入产出表;然后采用Leontief逆矩阵及其结构分解技术对非正规经济的产出乘数效应和经济关联效应展开分析。结果显示:(1)非正规经济与正规经济之间具有紧密的经济关联,逐渐成为支撑正规经济发展的重要基础,具有拉动经济增长的巨大潜力;(2)非正规经济内生发展机制、非正规经济与其他经济部门之间的反馈机制和关联机制均有好转,说明非正规经济促进经济增长的作用渠道愈加通畅;(3)动态乘数效应、动态反馈效应和动态溢出效应对非正规经济产出增长率的影响在不同历史阶段存在差异,政府应相应采取针对性措施。

As the size of the informal economy is expanding,the linkage between the informal and formal economy is increasingly strengthen. Combining with features of informal economy,this paper exploits the national input-output tables to establish five years＇ informal economy input-output tables in 1992,1997,2002,2007 and 2012 respectively. It uses the Leontief inverse matrices and structural decomposition techniques to investigate the multiplier effects and linkage effects of informal economy. The results show that：（1） there are close linkages between the informal and formal economy,and the informal economy becomes an important basis to support the development of formal economy and a great potential for stimulating growth.（2） The informal economy＇s endogenous development capacity,feedback mechanisms and correlation mechanism with other economic sectors have improved,and the channels that informal economy promotes economic growth becomes smoother.（3） The dynamic multiplier effects,dynamic feedback effects and dynamic spillover effects on the growth rate of informal economy differ in each period. Corresponding policies should be taken by the government.