基于SD的房地产库存模型及其仿真

Model of real estate inventory and its simulation research based on SD

应用系统动力学的原理和建模方法描述了我国房地产库存状况,分析了房地产库存影响因素的因果反馈关系,构建了房地产库存的系统动力学模型,并引入政策调控变量,进行仿真实验。结果表明,实施控制商品房价格过快上涨、降低个人住房公积金贷款利率与首付比例对房地产库存化解产生促进效应,并且商品房价格对房地产库存的影响程度远远大于金融政策对房地产库存的影响程度。最后,基于本文研究,对房地产库存化解提出相关政策建议。

This paper utilized the basic principle and modeling method in system dynamics to describe the status of real estate inventory in our country.The casual loop diagram was constructed to depict the causal feedback relations of real estate inventory.A system dynamics model of real estate inventory was established and some policy control variables were introduced,based on which a simulation experiment was carried out,with the results being shown as follows：the indigestion of real estate inventory can be relieved by controlling the prices of commercial housing and reducing the loan rate of personal housing accumulation fund as well as the down payment ratio.The results also showed that the impact of commercial housing prices on the real estate inventory is stronger than that of financial policy.Finally,based on the above research,some policy suggestions for the indigestion of real estate inventory were proposed in this paper.