基于变权法的南宁市人水和谐度评价

Evaluation of Human-Water Harmony Degree of Nanning Based on Variable Weighting Method

针对固定权重不考虑权重随评估值变化的现象,采用变权法,以健康度、发展度及协调度为准则,选取18个指标,通过单指标量化、多指标综合、多准则集成和权重确定对南宁市2011~2015年人水和谐程度进行量化研究。结果表明,南宁市人水和谐度不断提高,由2011年的0.580 8上升至2015年的0.738 6,总体上处于较为和谐状态的中等档次;变权法确定的权重跟随指标值变化,使三大准则基值与变化幅度均大于固定权重,进而求取的人水和谐度更优;建议南宁市以"海绵城市"为契机,不断落实节水型社会建设最严格水资源管理制度相关措施,保持人水和谐良好状态,进一步实现人水和谐,从而保证社会经济健康发展。

In view of the phenomenon that constant weighting method does not consider the change of weight with the assessed value,variable weighting method was applied to evaluate the human-water harmony degree of Nanning for the period of 2011-2015.In this paper,oriented by three criteria,such as health degree,development degree and coordination degree,18 indexes were chosen to form the evaluation framework,and several produces were combined,such as singleindex quantization,multi-index synthesis,multi-criteria integration and weight determination.Research results indicated that the human-water harmony degree of Nanning increases continuously,and it is in a harmonious state of middle level on a whole,the harmony degree of 0.580 8 in 2011 rose to 0.738 6 in 2015;owing to the weight obtained by variable weighting method changed with the index value,the fiducial value and change amplitude of three criteria is greater than constant weighting method,and a better human-water harmony degree was gained.It is suggested that Nanning City should seize the opportunity of ＂sponge city＂ to continue to implement the related measures of the most stringent water resources management system in the construction of water saving society,to maintain the harmony between human and water in good condition,and further realize the real human-water harmony,which can ensure the healthy development of social economy.