俄罗斯北高加索联邦区牛结节皮肤病的释放风险评估及其监测抽样模拟

Evaluation of entry risk of lumpy skin disease from the North Caucasus District of the Russian Federation and simulation of sampled surveillance of the disease

为明确俄罗斯北高加索联邦区牛结节性皮肤病（Lumpy skin disease,LSD）发生风险状况,基于OIE风险评估框架和统计分布模拟的方法开展对北高加索联邦区牛结节性皮肤病释放风险评估及其监测抽样模拟。结果显示：北高加索地区联邦区LSD的发病率均值为0.02371（95%CI=0.02-0.03）,最大可能流行率能达到0.0329。基于对该地区LSD发病率的估算,抽样监测模拟显示随机抽取平均83头牛只（95%CI=10-234头只）,就可以有95%的把握抽取取到一头只LSD阳性的牛。牛结节性皮肤病作为一类可以通过接触和虫媒传播的疫病,对畜牧业危害极大,对其的控制应实施严格的入境检疫和风险管理措施。

In order to well understand the current status of lumpy skin disease（ LSD） and the risk of its spread from North Caucasus Federal District of the Russian Federation,data of LSD cases collected between 2015-2016 by the Office of International Epizootics（ OIE） of the World Animal Health Information System（ WAHIS） were employed,and the risk of LSD spreading from North Caucasus was evaluated and risk-based sampled surveillance was simulated. The results showed that the incidence of LSD within the Bovine susceptible population in the North Caucasus Federal District was 0. 02371（ 95% CI = 0. 02-0. 03） with the maximal value of prevalence being as high as 0. 0329. Simulation of the sampled surveillance resulted in a 95% confidence of identifying one LSD-positive cattle among 83 randomly chosen ones（ 95%CI = 10-234 Head） from the cattle population in the district. Therefore,strict quarantine and risk management should be implemented to prevent entry of LSD into our country,as this contact-infected and insect-borne disease will cause disastrous damage to the stock farming.