中国债务风险的内生因素分析

Analysis on the Endogenous Factors of China's Debt Risk

后经济危机时代,主权债务问题日渐成为世界经济复苏的主要障碍。虽然同样遭遇了经济危机的外部冲击,债务危机却只在部分国家真正爆发了。基于这种现象,文章提出了债务风险内生因素这一假设及其分析框架,试图找到造成一国债务风险的内生因素以及债务危机形成的内在作用机制。并利用该分析框架构造了一个DSGE模型进行模拟,分别从赤字偏好、财政投资比例和公共资本产出弹性三个内生因素对债务风险进行了模拟分析,结果显示赤字偏好的增加会造成债务风险的上升,财政投资比例与债务风险存在非线性关系,而公共资本产出弹性的增加会造成债务风险的下降。随后,本文从内生因素角度分析了我国的债务风险,结果显示,从赤字偏好、财政投资比例和公共资本产出弹性角度来看,我国的债务风险总体水平较低。最后提出了相应的政策建议。

In the post economic crisis era, sovereign debt has become a major obstacle to the recovery of the world economy. Although it has also suffered external shocks from the economic crisis, the debt crisis has only exploded in some countries. Based on this phenomenon, this paper puts forward the hypothesis and analysis framework of endogenous factors of debt risk, trying to find out the endogenous factors that cause the risk of a country＇s debt and the internal mechanism of the formation of the debt crisis. Then we use this framework to construct a DSGE model to simulate debt risk, respectively from the deficit preference, the proportion of financial investment and public capital output elasticity. The results show that the rising deficit preference will increase the debt risk, there is a nonlinear relationship between proportion of the financial investment and the debt risk, and the increase of output elasticity of public capital will decline the debt risk. Then internal factor analysis of China＇s debt risk shows that the overall level of debt risk in China is relatively low. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.