广州市蔬菜价格波动及影响因素分析

Vegetable Price Fluctuation and Influence Factor Analysis——Based on Analysis of Guangzhou

本文主要通过分析蔬菜年际价格及蔬菜年内价格来研究广州蔬菜价格波动趋势和影响因素。从长期上看,广州蔬菜价格主要受自然灾害和汽油价格的影响。但从短期上来看,广州市蔬菜价格呈现出明显的季节性特征,每年5月和9月会出现高峰期,而2月和11月会出现低谷期。同时,通过对大蒜、红萝卜、西红柿、青瓜和菜心五种具有代表性和消费量大的2010~2013年月度价格分析,得出＂谷峰不显著＂＂一谷一峰＂和＂多谷多峰＂三种类型的蔬菜价格波动特征。为进一步稳定蔬菜市场价格,本文提出加大科技投入,强化蔬菜的冷藏贮存技术,尝试推广＂家庭农场＂等政策。

This paper focused on analyzing vegetables ＇ prices variation between every year and every day in an effort to study the fluctuation tendency and influential factors of prices of veggies in Guangzhou area.Over the long term, we finally concluded that its prices are mainly affected by Guangdong ＇s natural disasters and price of gas. Whereas, in the short term, the vegetable prices in Guangzhou will present an obviously sea-sonal characteristic. The prices reach peak in May and September every year. Whereas, its trough occurs in February and November every year. In the meantime, through the study of 2012--2013 monthly prices analyses of five typical and large consumed veggies as follow： garlics, carrots, tomatoes, cucumbers and flowering cabbages, we drew conclusions on three types of prices fluctuation such as non-striking peak and trough, only one peak and one trough, and multiple peaks and troughs. Aiming at the result of our study, we believe that government of Guangzhou need to stabilize the prices of vegetables, besides they should stabilize the price of gas so that the cost of transportation can be reduced, via investing much stronger in technology, strength-ening the refrigerating technology and attempt to deploy ＂Families Farms＂.