浙江省制度变迁、金融发展对经济增长影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Institutional Change and Financial Development on Economic Growth in Zhejiang

本文将经济增长、制度变迁和金融发展纳入VAR模型之中,通过对浙江1986~2014年的数据进行动态对比,并进一步进行脉冲响应和方差分解,以分析浙江省经济增长在制度变迁、金融发展的冲击下而显现的不同特征。结果表明,浙江的制度变迁和金融发展对经济增长都有较大的影响,其中金融发展的影响更大,前期经济增长对金融发展的反应有适应性的调整过程,之后逐渐产生稳定上升的正响应,而制度变迁的红利主要释放在前期,虽然会引发后面各时期经济的增长,但增长的弹性呈现先上升后下降最后保持平稳的规律。

This article takes institutional change and economic growth of financial development in the VAR model,through dynamic comparing the data of zhejiang in 1986-2014, and further impulse response and variance decomposition, to analyze different characteristics of economic growth of zhejiang province under the impact of the institutional change and the financial development. Results show that the institutional change and the financial development of zhejiang province has great influence on economic growth. the impact of financial development is greater, in the early stage of economic growth the response to financial development has adap-tive adjustment process, and then a steady rise in response, and the institutional change of dividends major release in the early, while the cause behind the period of economic growth, the elasticity of growth appears to rise first and then fall to a steady state.