基于前景理论的发电商综合决策模型仿真分析

Simulation Analysis of Power Suppliers Comprehensive Decision Making Model Based on Prospect Theory

为得到符合发电商心理需求的电量分配方案和报价策略,采用前景理论提出发电商综合决策问题模型。通过计算机仿真得到不同条件下符合发电商心理需求的最优决策方案。仿真结果表明预测负荷量、发电成本、日前市场的电价情况和发电商的预期利润同时影响最优决策方案。分析发现前景理论发电商综合决策模型更符合现实中"有限理性人"在决策问题中的行为特点,验证了模型更具合理性和优越性。

A comprehensive decision making model is proposed based on the prospect theory to obtain optimal dis- tribution plan and bidding strategy. Through computer simulation, the optimal decision making strategy was obtained. The results show that the predicted load, power generation cost, condition of day-ahead market and expected profit affect the optimal decision scheme. Further analysis shows that comprehensive decision model based on prospect theo- ry is more consistent with the behavioral characteristics of the ＂limited rationality＂ person in decision problems, and the model is proved to be more reasonable and superior.