基于情景的关中平原土地利用和生态系统服务预测及变化分析

Simulating and analyzing the change of land use and ecosystem services in Guanzhong plain based on scenarios

结合气候情景和政策情景设置了16种未来情景,在2000年和2010年土地利用数据的基础上利用IDRISI软件中的LCM模块模拟了2050年关中平原地区的土地利用,并估算了2050年各情景的3种生态系统服务(固碳、保土和保水)。结果表明:全球气候变化对未来土地利用有显著影响,生态系统服务主要随着土地利用变化而变化。碳税政策的实施对林地影响较大,对土壤保持和固碳有积极作用,对产水有消极作用;人口政策实施对城镇用地影响较为显著,降低固碳与土壤保持能力,增加产水能力。固碳量和保土量总量高的情景中,产水量通常较低;而固碳量和产水量低的情景中,产水量通常较高。

16 scenarios were set combining climate scenarios and policy scenarios, and land use of 2050 in the Guanzhong plain were simulated by using land change modeler（LCM） of IDRISI software. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yield were quantified based on different ecosystem models. The results show that global climate change has a strong influence on future land use change. Land use type and ecosystem services change under different climate scenarios. The implementation of carbon tax policy has a greater impact on forest land, a negative effect on water production, and a positive effect on both soil retention and carbon sequestration. The implementation of population policy has a significant impact on urban land use, reducing carbon sequestration and soil conservation capacity, and increasing water production capacity. In the case of high carbon sequestration and soil conservation, the corresponding water yield is usually low. In the case of low carbon sequestration and soil conservation, the corresponding water yield is usually higher. Simulating land use type and ecosystem services based on policy can provide a reliable basis for the formulation of regional polices and contribute to the sustainable development of the region.