中国钢铁价格影响因素的计量分析

Econometric analysis on Steel Price Affecting Factors in China

钢铁被广泛用于国民生活和国家发展的各个方面,已成为决定一个国家生存和发展的物质保障。经过三十多年的发展,中国钢铁市场已由原来的供不应求转变为供大于求,如何通过价格优势在激烈的市场竞争中取胜将成为各钢铁企业关注的重点。通过对影响中国钢铁价格的相关因素进行系统的研究,找到各影响因素对钢铁价格的作用机理。研究结果显示:中国钢铁价格会随着钢铁生产成本(包括人工成本、原材料成本和钢铁进口价格)、贷款利率,以及国内需求的增加而提高,而在这些因素中对中国钢铁价格影响最大的是原材料价格和钢铁进口价格。

Steel is widely used in all aspects of national life and development and is the material guarantee for national survival and development. After thirty years of development, Chinese steel market has changed from shortage into a glut. Steel companies began to focus on the use of price advantage to win in the fierce competition in the market. The systematic study on steel price affecting factors in China, was carried out to reveal the mechanism how factors affect the steel price. The result shows Chinese steel price goes up with increase of steel production cost （including labor cost, raw materials cost and steel import price）, interest rate and domestic demand. Among those factors, raw materials cost and steel import price have greatest effect on Chinese steel price.