中国新型城镇化发展水平的综合评价:构建、测度与比较

Evaluation Index System of New-pattern Urbanization in China:Construction,Measure and Comparison

根据新型城镇化的基本内涵和中国2020年新型城镇化发展的规划目标,综合专家群决策的网络分析法和基于变异系数的因子贡献法,构建三层次四维度的中国新型城镇化发展水平综合评价指标体系,并利用2000-2016年中国和各省市的数据进行了时间和空间维度的测度和比较。结果发现:(1)新世纪以来,中国新型城镇化发展水平提高较快,但各主要维度发展水平不平衡,人口城镇化速度远高户籍人口城镇化,资源环境水平严重滞后且差距持续扩大;(2)中国各地区新型城镇化发展水平空间差异明显,呈现从东部沿海向中、西部依次递减的特征,并且各地区新型城镇化的优势和短板各不相同;(3)中国各地区的新型城镇化可以划分为质量同步、质量超前和质量滞后三类7种组合,超过一半的地区存在城镇化质量滞后于城镇化率的情况,质量滞后仍然是现阶段中国新型城镇化的主要特征。

Based on the definition and the targets for the 2020 new-pattern urbanization in China,this paper constructs the evaluation index system containing three levels and four dimensions by combining GD-ADP and CV methods,and makes the evaluation for new-pattern urbanization of 31 provinces（ cities） in China during2000 to2016.We find that：（ 1） The level of China＇s new-urbanization has improved rapidly after 2000 till now but remained unbalanced between the major dimensions;（ 2） The level of urbanization exists distinct gap among differents provinces.The level of urbanization presents obvious feature of spatial differences and is in descending order from eastern coastal region to central region then to western region;（ 3） compared to level of population urbanization rate and quality of new-patternurbanization,all the provinces（ cities） can be classified into three classifications and seven distinctive types.More than half of the region＇s urbanization quality lags behind the rate of urbanization,the quality of lag is still the main characteristics of China＇s new-urbanization.