负利率真的有效吗?——基于欧洲央行与欧元区国家的实证检验

Is the Negative Interest Rate Effective?——Evidence from the Eurozone

负利率是一种极具争议的货币政策,尽管目前已有多个国家在实施负利率,但其政策效果尚待严格检验。本文基于欧元区主要国家2003年1月至2015年12月的数据,使用面板向量自回归(PVAR)方法分析了欧洲央行货币政策的实施效果。结论显示,调低利率的货币政策在危机中效果并不理想,负利率难以达到促进经济复苏与消除通缩的作用,比较而言扩充流动性的货币政策效果更显著;欧洲央行的宽松货币政策对经常项目顺差国产生了较好的影响,但逆差国需要更艰苦的结构调整与自身改革才能解决问题。虽然突破零利率下限约束的负利率被视为是一种对传统利率理论的"创新",但整体来看实施效果并不尽如人意;货币政策需要与财税政策和产业政策协调,才能充分发挥宏观调控职能,才能为促进经济复苏与结构调整营造良好的金融与货币环境。

This paper sheds light on the impacts of the monetary policies released by the European Central Bank from Jan 2003 to Dec 2015, with the twelve main Eurozone countries in an analytical framework of the Panel Vector Auto Regres- sion （PVAR） . It shows that QE and interest rates have two-way interactive effects on each other, while the former has more significant impacts on the later. Both policy tools have more significant impacts on the economies with current account sur- plus than those with current account deficit. Moreover, nominal interest rates have positive effects on real interest rates, and such effects are stronger in those economies with current account surplus than those with current account deficit. It concludes that QE should be a more suitable policy instrument for the ECB than the negative real interest rate, however, the exogenous expansionary monetary policies cannot solve economic problems in the economies with current account deficit.