摘要
针对电网可靠性评估对精度和速度的需求,提出了一种基于高斯混合模型与交叉熵的电网可靠性评估方法。首先对电网节点负荷、光伏发电站光照强度或风电场风速等变量建立混合高斯模型;然后使用该模型进行重要性抽样,得到负荷样本;最后将负荷样本分摊到各电网节点上,并计算电网的负荷削减概率和期望缺供电量来评估电网的可靠性。在IEEE-RTS79系统上的仿真测试结果表明,该方法能精确、高效地评估电网的可靠性。
This paper presents a reliability evaluation meth- od for power grids based on Gaussian mixture model and cross entropy according to the reliability and speed requirements of the grid reliability evaluation. Firstly, a hybrid Gaussian model is established for the load of the grid node, the light intensity of the photovohaic power plant or the wind speed of the wind farm. Then, the model is used to sample the load. The load samples thus obtained are distributed to the grid nodes and the grid load reduction probability and the expected lack of power are calculat- ed to assess the reliability of the grid. The simulation results on the IEEE-RTS79 system show that the method can accurately and efficiently evaluate the reliability of the power grid.
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
北大核心
2017年第12期8-11,共4页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
国家自然科学基金(61561018)~~
