基于SWOT分析的黄渤海海洋气象现代化协同发展研究

Cooperative Development of Oceanic Meteorology Modernization in the Huang-Bohai Region Based on the SWOT Analysis

文章在气象现代化建设和协同理论研究的背景下,基于对黄渤海海洋气象现代化的优势、劣势、机会和威胁的分析(SWOT分析),利用"新五力模型"研究黄渤海海洋气象现代化协同发展机制。研究表明,黄渤海海洋气象现代化的优势主要包括海洋气象观测系统、海洋气象预警预报信息发布和建立海洋气象中心,劣势主要包括海洋气象立体观测能力不足、精准海洋气象技术发展不足和海洋气象工作协同发展不足,机会主要包括"一带一路"建设、新技术发展和新型气象灾害预警系统建设,威胁主要包括主要影响天气系统、重要致灾因子和潜在的社会竞争;应充分有效利用吸引力、凝聚力、辐射力、排斥力和亲和力5种作用力的不同功能和组合创新,促进黄渤海海洋气象现代化协同发展。

Under the research background of the meteorological modernization development and cooperative theory,and based on analyses of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats（SWOT analysis）of marine meteorological modernization construction in Huang-Bohai region,a new five-force model was used to study the cooperative developing mechanism of marine meteorological modernization in Huang-Bohai.The research results showed,the advantages of marine meteorological modernization of Huang-Bohai mainly include three aspects which are marine meteorological observation system,marine meteorological warning information release and the construc-tion of marine meteorological center.The disadvantages contain that stereo-observation ability of the marine meteorological is insufficiency,and the precision forecast technology and the cooperative development are deficiency in marine meteorological.The opportunities include three aspects,which are＂The Belt and Road＂,development of new technology and new warning system on meteorological disasters.The threats mainly contain the main influencing weather system,the potential social competition and hazard factors.The use of different functions and combination innovation of five-forces,i.e.,attractiveness,cohesiveness,radiating power,repulsiveness and affinity,could promote the cooperative development of marine meteorological modernization in the HuangBohai.