2000～2016年陕西省地质灾害时空分布规律及变化趋势

The spatial and temporal distribution and trend of geological disaster in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2016

本文利用2000~2016年陕西省已经造成人员伤亡和财产损失的地质灾害灾情资料,分析研究了近十七年陕西省地质灾害时空分布规律及变化趋势。结果表明:(1)时间上,年内地质灾害主要发生在5~10月,而7~9月是重灾期,非汛期地质灾害数量占比呈明显增高态势,由2013年以前的不足10.00%上升至2015年的39.47%、2016年的26.67%;年际上每3~5年会发生一次特大型地质灾害;"十二五"期间,地质灾害的发生数量、死亡失踪人数、直接经济损失总体上呈明显下降趋势。(2)空间上,陕南地区的地质灾害数量最多,但近年来陕北地区的地质灾害数量明显增多,呈现出由陕南向陕北逐渐扩展的趋势,2013年和2016年地质灾害数量占比由2003年的最低值0.25%分别上升至87.54%和46.67%,远远高于同年陕南地区。(3)引发因素上,由单一的自然因素向多因素交织转变,因人为活动引发的地质灾害数量呈现上升趋势。

In this work,the data of geological disaster that have caused casualties and property losses from2000 to 2016 in Shaanxi Province was used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and trend of geological disaster in Shaanxi Province during the past 17 years. The results show that：（ 1） geological disasters mainly occurred from May to October and heavy disasters occurred from July to September. However,the proportion of geological disasters in non-flood season increased obviously,which increased from less than10. 00% before 2013 to 39. 47% in 2015 and 26. 67% in 2016. In the inter-annual period,a particularly large-scale geological disaster would occur every 3 ~ 5 years. During the ＂12 th Five-Year Plan＂period,thetotal number of geological disasters,deaths and disappearances,as well as direct economic losses,have generally shown a clear decrease trend.（ 2） Geological disasters in southern Shaanxi province were more frequent. However,in recent years the number of geological disasters in northern Shaanxi province has increased significantly,showing a trend of gradually expanding from southern Shaanxi province to northern Shaanxi province. The proportion of geological disasters from the lowest value of 0. 25% in 2003 up to87. 54% in 2013 and 46. 67% in 2016 respectively,much higher than that in the same year in southern Shaanxi province.（ 3） The trigger factor changed from a single natural factor to multi-factor due to the increasing trend of geological disasters number caused by human activities.