管理会计中的“数目捷径”:关于数目启发式对投资决策影响的行为学分析

The Numerosity Heuristic in Management Accounting:A Behavioral Study of the Influence of Numerical Heuristics on Investment Decisions

本文通过两项研究考查数目启发式(即人们根据量化信息进行决策时过度依赖表面数目大小而忽略其它重要信息的认知误差)对管理会计投资决策的影响。在第一项问卷研究中,我们发现使用数量和概率信息进行决策时,表面数目大小对决策者有着重要影响,导致决策者偏离理性分析及形成决策误差。在第二项实验研究中,我们发现在对确定性收益项目和不确定性收益项目进行抉择的任务中,当确定性收益项目用大数目(即小计量单位)表述时,决策者比同样的项目用小数目(即大计量单位)表述更有可能选择该项目。但在对确定性损失项目和不确定性损失项目进行比较抉择时,确定性损失项目的大小数目表述形式对决策者影响并不显著。

The two study examined the influence of numemsity heuristics on management accounting behavior, especially the investment decision. In the first study, we predicted and found that in the investment decision task with quantity and probability information, the numerosity heuristics has sig- nificant impact on the decision making and cause the bias from the rational decision process. In the second experiment study, we predicted and found in the investment decision task of the comparative choice between certainty and uncertainty earnings projects, decision-makers prefer the projects with cer- tainty earnings expressed in large numbers than projects with certainty earnings present in small numbers But when comparing the certainty loss projects with the uncertainty loss projects, the influence of express format of numbers to decision making is not significant.