基于入户调查数据的中国居民生活碳排放评估

Household CO_2 emissions: An assessment based a large sample survey in China

采用中国大陆31个省区居民生活碳排放调研数据,基于碳排放系数、投入产出和消费者生活方式3种方法对中国整体、城乡、区域居民生活碳排放进行评估,并从户均、人均和排放结构3个角度揭示中国居民生活排放现状,旨在了解当前中国居民生活碳排放的城乡差异和区域差异.研究发现:城镇户均居民生活碳排放是农村的1.48倍;城镇人均居民生活碳排放是农村的1.82倍;西南区户均和人均居民生活碳排放均最小,分别为6.89 t CO_2/户和2.06 t CO_2/人;晋陕内蒙古区户均居民生活碳排放最大,为9.52 t CO_2/户;东北区人均居民生活碳排放量最大,为3.15 t CO_2/人;医疗保健、热力、煤炭、食品和电力消费是居民生活碳排放的主要来源.通过对中国居民生活直接能耗和间接消费产生的碳排放进行基础性和系统性研究,不仅可以明确不同消费行为在居民生活碳排放中的贡献,而且为中国政府提出的减排目标和达峰目标提供数据支撑和科学依据.

Household consumption and energy usage have increased with the improved per capita income and advancing living standard. CO2 emissions are also increasing from the household sector including direct CO2 emissions from energy usage and indirect CO2 emissions from household consumption. For example, household appliances, electronic products and private cars are increasingly widespread, which brings higher CO2 emissions from households. At the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, China, as the largest developing country and largest total emitting coun- try in the world, promised to reduce its carbon emission intensity （CO2 emissions per GDP） in the year 2020 by 40%-45% compared to 2005. China also promised to achieve its carbon emissions peak value around 2030 at Paris Climate Change Conference. The analysis of determinants of household CO2 emissions is a significant way to give effective low-carbon measures for governments and energy policy-makers. Based on survey data of household CO2 emissions （HCEs） in China's Mainland, we calculated HCEs at the per household and per capita levels, and evaluated the carbon emissions structure level both in urban and rural areas in eight research regions by using IPCC Reference Approach and Input-Output Analysis and Consumer Lifestyle Ap- proach. Our conclusions are as follows： （1） China＇s HCEs are very low both from per household and per capita perspectives, at 8.05 t CO2/household and 2.47 t CO2/person, respectively. （2） There are great differences on HCEs between urban and rural areas in China. HCEs per household in urban and rural areas are 9.54 and 6.43 t CO2, re- spectively. HCEs per household in urban areas are 1.48 times as much as in rural areas. HCEs per capita in urban and rural areas are 3.25 and 1.78 t CO2, respectively. HCEs per capita in urban areas are 1.82 times as much as in rural areas. （3） There are great regional differences in HCEs. Southwest China has the lowest HCEs both per household and per capita, which are 6.89 t CO2/household and 2.06 t CO2/person, respectively. Shanxi-ShaanxiInner Mongolia Area has the greatest per household HCEs, which are 9.52 t CO2/household. Northeast China has the greatest per capita HCEs, which are 3.15 t CO2/person. （4） There are great differences in HCEs between direct and indirect forms of emissions. Comparing HCEs per household from direct energy usage and indirect household consumption, direct HCEs accounted for 23.51%, 15.80% and 35.88% in the all of China, urban areas, and rural areas, respectively. Indirect household consumption contributed to the balances of HCEs. （5） There are great differences in HCEs between different carbon emissions sources. Comparing HCEs from the point of carbon emissions, health care, heating, coal, food and electricity were the main contributors to HCEs both in the whole region, and both urban and rural areas. The results revealed the current situation mad the development trend of HCEs both in urban areas and rural areas in China, as well as an analysis of both regional and urban/rural differences in HCEs. Our results show that different consuming behaviors played different roles in rising HCEs. Low-carbon policies, including enhancing the residents＇ awareness on energy saving and carbon emission reduction, encouraging multi-generation members to live together and mastering green and low-carbon construction systems, were provided, which also gave data support and scientific evidence for achieving 40%-45% reduction targets in 2020 and the peak value targets around 2030.