粮食经营是否进入稳定发展阶段?——基于江苏省水稻生产效率的测算

Does China's grain production achieve the stable development stage?——Based on an analysis of rice production efficiency in Jiangsu Province

为应对农产品国际竞争力水平下降,中央政府鼓励农业规模化经营并取得迅速发展。伴随规模化经营主体成长至今,关于什么是适度规模?是否达到适度规模?的争论越来越多。以江苏省水稻种植业为例,基于农产品成本收益资料中的微观调查数据,利用全局DEA方法对江苏省不同规模水稻种植户的效率水平以及所处发展阶段进行研究。结果表明,种植户综合技术效率和纯技术效率水平总体上呈上升趋势,2016年江苏稻农纯技术效率水平为0.87;农户平均纯技术效率水平随规模扩张先上升后下降,在最优适度规模区间(3.22~4.83 hm2)内,江苏稻农平均纯技术效率水平为0.891,达到最高。同时,江苏稻农纯技术效率水平分布出现了分化,农户向更高纯技术效率水平处的集中速度呈现出由快变慢的趋势。进一步验证表明,近年来处于规模报酬递增阶段的农户比重呈现出下降的趋势,到2016年有66.8%的农户摆脱了次优投入规模,基于效率最优视角下的规模扩张的需求强度减弱,粮食经营逐渐步入稳定发展时期。未来,应通过农业技术推广、发展农业社会化服务、畅通土地流转市场、转变农业支持政策等措施来进一步释放农业生产力。

Facing the challenge of declining international competitiveness of agricultural products, the central government has encouraged farmers to expand the operation scale to achieve rapid development. With the development of large-scale agricultural operation, it raises different opinions on the definition of optimal operation scale and whether China＇s grain production has achieved the optimal operation scale. Taking rice production in Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper applies the global DEA method to study the level of efficiency from the perspective of different sizes and the stage of agricultural development based on the micro-survey data. Results show that the comprehensive technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency were increasing. The pure technical efficiency of Jiangsu rice farmers was 0.87 in 2016, and the average pure technical efficiency of the rice farmers increased first and then decreased with the change of operation scale. In the optimal moderate scale range （3.22-4.83 lamE）, the average pure technical efficiency reached the highest level to 0.891. At the same time, the pure technology efficiency of Jiangsu rice farmers showed differentiation and the concentration rate of farmers at higher level of pure technical efficiency showed a decreasing trend. Empirical tests show that the proportion of farmers at the stage of increasing returns to scale showed a decreasing trend in recent years. By 2016, 66.7% of the farmers have gotten rid of the sub-optimal scale, during which the farmers＇ demand for scale expansion was very strong from the efficiency perspective and the grain production has achieved the optimal operation scale stage. To continue to increase agricultural productivity in the future, this paper suggests to popularize agricultural technologies, to develop agricultural social services, to unblock the market for land transfer, and to reform agricultural support policies.