乳业产业系统发展状态测度研究——基于协同论的实证分析

Systematic development assessment of dairy industry:An empirical analysis based on synergetic theory

科学测度乳业产业系统发展状态,是提升乳业竞争力和实现乳业可持续发展的内在要求。乳业产业系统具有复杂性和内部交互性,可划分为原料乳供应、乳制品加工、乳制品销售和乳制品消费4个子系统。基于协同理论,采用驰豫系数法,利用2006—2015年中国乳业数据,分析乳业产业系统发展状况和各子系统的有序发展状况,探讨其协调发展水平。结果表明,乳业产业系统协同度最高值仅为0.024,尚未形成良好的发展状态;各子系统有序度水平均处于较低水平,最高值为0.244,其中乳制品加工子系统有序度水平相对较高,但上升缓慢。乳业产业各子系统之间存在着相互作用,乳制品加工与乳制品消费子系统的相互影响最强,而原料乳供应与乳制品销售子系统的相互影响最弱。研究表明,要实现乳业产业系统高效协同发展,需要乳业产业所有子系统的运营状态都提高。因此,提出加强优质奶源基地和优质饲草体系建设;继续实行乳企兼并重组战略、丰富产品结构以深入开发国内外市场、加强乳企品牌建设;加强行业发展成就展示和消费引导等促进乳业可持续发展的政策建议。

Scientifically assessing the systematic development of the dairy industry is an inherent requirement to enhance the competitiveness of dairy industry and realize the sustainable development of dairy industry. With complexity and internal interaction, the dairy industry can be divided into four subsystems： including raw milk supply, dairy processing, dairy sale and dairy consumption. Based on China＇s dairy industry data from 2006 to 2015 and applying the synergetic theory and the relaxation coefficient method, this paper analyzed the development level of the dairy industry and also included the ordered development level and the coordinated development of the subsystems in this research. Results show that： the maximum of synergetic degree of dairy industry was only 0.024, not reaching a good development stage. The order degrees of the subsystems were relatively low, with the highest value being 0.244 for the processing subsystem and with a slow increasing trend. There are interactions among the various subsystems： the interaction between dairy processing and dairy consumption is the strongest, the interaction between raw milk supply and dairy sales is the weakest. The research indicates that to achieve efficient development of dairy industry system, all the subsystems need to be improved. Therefore, this paper provides the following policy recommendations to promote the sustainable development of dairy industry： to strengthen the construction of high-quality milk source base and forage grass system; to continue to implement the merger and reorganization strategy of dairy enterprises, to enrich the product structure to further develop the domestic and international markets, to strengthen the brand building of dairy enterprises; to strengthen the achievements display in dairy industry and the guidance of consumers.