宣城市1966—2015年气候变化趋势及突变分析

Climate Change Trend and Mutation in Xuancheng During 1966-2015

为研究气候变化的区域差异,合理开发利用气候资源,为本地农业、旅游业等领域的发展决策提供科学理论依据,笔者采用Mann-Kendall检验法,选取宣城市所辖7个县(市、区)气象站1966—2015年的气象资料,对温度、降水量2个主要的气象要素近50年的变化趋势和突变性进行分析。结果表明,近50年来,宣城市平均气温呈上升趋势。从季节上看,除夏季增加趋势不显著外,其他三季气温增加趋势均明显,春季增温趋势最显著。年、季气温的突变时间大多出现在20世纪90年代后期。年降水量50年内总体上为增加趋势(不显著),但20世纪90年代后期以来,降水减少。一年中,春、秋季的降水量呈下降趋势,春季下降趋势显著,秋季趋势不显著,夏、冬两季降水均显著增加趋势。年、季降水量近50年发生多次突变。

The paper aims to study the regional differences of climate change, exploit and utilize climateresources reasonably and provide a theoretical basis for the development planning of local agriculture andtourism. The authors analyzed the trend and mutation of the two main meteorological elements of temperatureand precipitation over the past 50 years, based on the Mann Kendall test method and the meteorological data of7 counties＇ meteorological stations from 1966 to 2015. The results showed that： the average temperature ofXuancheng had an increasing trend in the past 50 years; from a seasonal perspective, the increase trend oftemperature was obvious except in summer, and the trend of warming in spring was most significant; themutation of annual and seasonal temperature mostly occurred in the late 1990 s; the annual precipitationgenerally increased in the 50 years（not significant）, but since the late 1990 s, precipitation decreased. Theprecipitation in spring and autumn showed a decreasing trend, and the trend in autumn was not significant; theprecipitation in summer and winter showed a significant increase trend; there were several mutations in annualand seasonal precipitation over the past 50 years.