气候变化背景下天葵的适生区分布预测

Suitable Area of Growth Prediction of Semiaquilegia adoxoides under the Impact of Climate Change

采用最大熵模型并结合多种气候变化背景,预测天葵在当代及未来适生区的分布格局。结果表明,利用最大熵模型评价所构建的天葵分布模型具有极佳的预测精度;天葵的当代适生区总面积为136.39×104 km2,占中国版图的14.17%;其中,当代适生区71.94%的区域为相对稳定适生区,受气候变化影响相对较小;在气候变化背景下,与近代分布区相比,其在21世纪20、30、40、50、60、70和80年代的适生区总面积均有不同程度的减少;未来气候变化的影响不仅会导致天葵的适生区总面积下降,也会对天葵的生活适宜度造成负面影响。

Based on maximum entropy（Maxent）model and different climate change scenarios,current and future distribution patterns of Semiaquilegia adoxoides.in China were predicted.The results showed that the model exhibited excellent and the current suitable area of growing of S.adoxoides totaled 136.39×104 km2,accounting for 14.17%of the total area of China,and 71.94%of which is relatively stable and is relatively less affected by the climate change.Compared with the current distribution pattern,the distribution areas of S.adoxoides during 2020 s,2030 s,2040 s,2050 s,2060 s,2060 s,2070 sand 2080 swill be reduced to various degree,which will generate negative effect on habitat suitability of S.adoxoides.