关于建立高血压前期人群高血压发病病证结合风险预测模型的思考

The Idea about Establishing Syndrome-Combination Risk Forecasting Model for Hypertension in Prehypertension Population

早期辨识可能发展为高血压病的高血压前期人群,有针对性地干预,可降低高血压病患病率,是疾病防治重心前移的战略需求。目前高血压前期人群发生高血压病的预测研究有一定局限性。提出通过收集高血压前期人群的危险因素及四诊信息,通过数据分析,筛选出高血压前期发展为高血压病的高危危险因素和中医证候要素,采用神经网络、支持向量机、决策树等多重方法建立模型,通过对模型验证、评价,构建危险因素和中医证候相结合的风险预测模型,为早期筛查可能发展为高血压病的高血压前期人群提供科学依据。

Early identification of prehypertension populations that may develop into hypertension and targeted intervention may reduce the prevalence of hypertension,which is the strategic demand of shifting gravity forward of disease prevention and treatment. At present,there are some limitations in prediction study of hypertension in prehypertension population. The authors put forward that by collecting the risk factors and four diagnosis information in prehypertension population,as well as by data analysis,the high risk factors and Chinese medicine syndrome elements for the development of hypertension from prehypertension may be screened out. Model could be established with multiple methods,such as nerve net,support vector machine and decision tree. By validating and evaluating the model,the risk forecasting model combined with risk factors and Chinese medicine syndrome might be established to provide scientific basis for early screening prehypertension population who may develop into hypertension.