摘要
为了确保海上丝绸之路的通畅,海上运输安全问题亟待研究解决,确定和控制海上安全主要影响因素是防止碰撞事故发生的有效途径,采用二元逻辑回归方法进行单变量和多变量分析相关影响因素的内在规律。研究结果表明:(1)碰撞事故与发生时间、船速、载货情况、船龄、地点之间具有显著相关性;(2)时间在夜晚,船速较高,船龄较低,发生地点在受限水域时发生碰撞事故的概率较高。
In this paper, in order to ensure the smooth running of the Maritime Silk Road, solve the security problem in maritime transport, we identified and controlled the main factors influencing the safety of maritime transport as an effective way to prevent maritime collision of the ships and adopted the binary logistic regression to analyze both univariately and multivariately the internal pattern of the influence factors. The result shows that first a significant correlation exists between the collision accident and the time of occurrence, speed of the ship, cargo carrying condition, age of the vessel and location and secondly, the collision accidents are more prone to happen at night, when the speed of the ship is high, the ship is relatively new, and in confined waters.
作者
涂敏
胡远程
Tu Min, Hu Yuancheng(School of Communication, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, Chin)
出处
《物流技术》
2018年第2期53-56,72,共5页
Logistics Technology
关键词
海上安全
海上丝绸之路
海上碰撞事故
影响因素
逻辑回归模型
maritime safety
Maritime Silk Road
maritime collision
influence factors
logistic regression model
