基于ALMANAC的山西省冬小麦模拟

Simulation of Winter Wheat in Shanxi Based on ALMANAC

为了准确监测山西省冬小麦动态长势和预测产量,使用ALMANAC作物生长模型对山西省洪洞县高、中、低产田的冬小麦产量进行了模拟。收集了模型需要的作物属性、土壤、气象及田间管理措施等众多参数,并根据实际情况对参数进行了调整。结果表明:冬小麦模拟产量的相对误差(RE)为-7.8%~5.7%,叶面积指数的RE为-12.5%~13.6%,水地最大叶面积指数最大;与背景态相比生育期提前,叶面积指数水地变化不大,旱地低较多,温度主要是对生育期的影响,而水分则对叶面积指数产生较大影响。冬小麦的产量和叶面积指数的动态变化能够被ALMANAC模型较好地模拟;而且模型能够模拟不同水分条件下冬小麦的叶面积指数及气候变化对冬小麦影响。

The paper aims to accurately monitor the dynamic growth and forecast yield of winter wheat in Shanxi.The authors simulated winter wheat yield with high,medium and low fields in Hongdong of Shanxi by using ALMANAC crop growth model.The parameters such as crop attributes,soil,weather and field management measures were collected,and the parameters were adjusted according to the actual situation.The results showed that： the relative error of simulated yields for winter wheat was-7.8%-5.7%,while that of simulated leaf area indexes was-12.5%-13.6%,the maximum leaf area index of irrigated land was the max;compared with the background state,the growth period was ahead of time,the leaf area index of water land changed little,that of dry land was much lower; the temperature mainly impacted on the growth period,and the water mainly influenced the leaf area index.The model ALMANAC can preferably simulate the dynamic changes of the yields and leaf area indexes of winter wheat; and the model is able to simulate the leaf area index under different water conditions and the effect of climate change on winter wheat.