基于交通部门“S”形模型的全球石油需求展望

World oil demand based on S-Curve Model of the transport sector

各国对石油需求实证研究日益关注,需求预测方法涉及不同形式的模型和估算方法。但这些方法存在着不同程度的局限,如适用性有限、误差大、未能体现石油消费与经济发展、经济结构等因素间的内在关联等。本文构建了一套基于交通部门终端能源消费"S"形模型的石油需求预测方法,预测不同发展阶段国家集团以及典型国家未来20多年的石油需求量。结果表明,全球石油需求增速明显放缓,并且在2040年前可能到达峰值,需求量为51.69亿t左右。美英等为代表的后工业化国家的石油需求呈现下降趋势;俄罗斯为代表的工业化晚期国家及以中国为代表的工业化中期国家的石油需求整体呈现先增后降的趋势,峰值点分别出现在2025年和2030年前后;工业化早期国家和前工业化国家石油需求呈持续增长趋势。全球石油需求的先增后降趋势主要是受汽车能效提高、新能源汽车发展、碳减排约束等多重因素的影响,这将对全球石油供需格局乃至地缘政治带来深刻变化。

Empirical research on oil demand forecasting has received increasing attention spanning different models and estimation methods. There are various defects in current methods, such as limited applicability, large error and failure to reflect the internal relationship between oil consumption and economic development, economic structure and so on. Based on the S-curve model of end-use energy consumption in the transport sector, a method of oil demand forecasting is constructed. Here, we predict oil demand in 5 types of countries at different stages of development and typical countries in the next 20 years after national classification. The results show a sharp slowdown in global oil demand growth and a possible peak before 2040 of 5.2 billion tons. Oil demand has shown a downward trend as a whole in post industrialized countries represented by the USA and UK. A trend of first increasing and then decreasing in late industrialized countries was found for Russia and middle industrialized countries such as China, when peaks appear around 2025 and 2030 respectively. Demand for oil in other types of countries continues to grow. The trend of first increasing and then falling in global oil demand is affected by improvements in vehicle energy efficiency, the development of electric vehicles and restriction in carbon emission reduction. This will result in profound changes in the patterns of global oil supply and demand, and geopolitics.