再生资源产业关联及宏观经济效应分析

Industrial association and macroeconomic effects within the recycled resources industry

"十三五"期间,再生资源产业发展备受重视,规模不断扩大。可以预计的是,该产业与其他产业间的关联关系将更加紧密,对国民经济的影响也将加大。然而现有文献对这方面的研究相对较少。本文基于投入产出方法,采用2007年、2012年中国投入产出表,实证分析再生资源产业的关联效应和宏观经济效应。结果表明:(1)再生资源产业前向关联大于后向关联,即对下游产业(如钢压延产品加工业、造纸和纸制品业等部门)的支撑大于对上游产业(如塑料制品业、有色金属压延加工业等部门)的拉动;(2)再生资源产业受国民经济发展的拉动作用大于其对整个国民经济的推动作用;(3)再生资源产业投资效应最强,就业和出口效应较弱,消费效应为零;(4)样本期内,产业关联和宏观经济效应均有所提升。可见,该产业未来的发展势头良好,除了具有显著的环境效益之外,也将发挥良好的经济效益。

During the period of China＇ s 13th Five-Year Plan, much attention has been paid to the development of recycled resources. The relationship between this industry and other industries will be increasingly related, and impact on the national economy will increase. However, there is rela- tively little research available on this topic. Here, based on input-output tables of 135 and 139 sec- tors in 2007 and 2012 we calculated a series of coefficients for the industrial correlation degree, spread effect and macroeconomic effect, and analyzed the correlation and macroeconomic effects of the recycled resources industry. We found that forward association of the recycled resources in- dustry is greater than backward association, indicating the supporting role of the recycled resources industry to downstream industries （e.g. rolling of steel, manufacture of paper and paper products） is greater than to upstream industries （e.g. manufacture of plastic, rolling of non-ferrous metals）. The sensitivity coefficient of the recycled resources industry is greater than its influence coefficient which shows that the stimulating effect from national economic development to the recycled re- sources industry is greater than the promoting effect from the recycled resources industry to nation- al economic development. The investment effect of the recycled resources industry is strong, the employment and export effects are weak, and the consumption effect is zero. From 2007 to 2012, the industrial associations and macroeconomic effects of recycled resources industry have both im- proved. The future of the recycled resources industry has a good momentum of development and in addition to its significant environmental benefits, it has strong economic benefits.