农户对气候变化适应行为的有效性评价

Assessments of the Efficacy of Farmers' Adaptive Behaviors to Climate Change

气候变化对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响非常显著,更好地理解农户对适应行为的有效性评价对于制定合适的适应政策、提高农民适应气候变化的能力非常重要。利用陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户调查样本数据,分析农户适应行为有效性感知特征,并结合调查地2000—2014年的统计年鉴数据中常用耕地面积和粮食产量指标,从客观层面验证适应行为的效果,最后运用多元线性回归分为3个模型辨识影响农户对适应行为有效性评价的显著因素。结果表明:(1)具有高适应效能感知的适应行为大部分被受访农户使用;2000—2014年研究区的粮食产量在波动中上升,说明适应行为有一定的实际效果;(2)影响农户对适应行为有效性评价的显著因素包括农户属性中的非农业收入、农业收入、种植规模、性别、看电视和赶集的频率,农户对气候变化的感知中的本地自然灾害变化、气候变化导致作物播种时间、收获时间、作物产量变化和病虫害,2005—2015年的降水等。

The impact of climate change is very significant on farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better assessment of the efficacy of farmers＇ adaptive behaviors for formu- lating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers＂ ability to adapt to climate change. Based on sur- vey data from interviews with farmers in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, the characteristics of farmers＂ perceived adaptation efficacy was analyzed, and with the common cultivated land area and grain yield in statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2014, the effect of adaptive behavior was veri- fied from the objective level. Three multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the efficacy of farmers＂ adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments. The results are as follows： （1） In general, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most interview- ees. Measures that had relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as mi- gration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. The food production of the surveyed are- as rose in volatility during 2000--2014, indicating the actual effect of adaptive behaviors. （2） The key de- mographical and social factors of farmers＂ influencing assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors were non-farming income, farming income, planting scale, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market and gender. Changes of the local natural disasters, the adjustment of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers＂ adaptation assess- ments. Average precipitation in 2005- 2015 was found to influence farmers＂ adaptation appraisals signifi- cantly. The natural environment is not only a macroscopic factor limiting the distribution of crops, but also a driving factor for farmers to adopt micro measures.